April 6, 2025
The second section took me a long time to write because I honestly think a lot of media has been painting a doomsday picture of the economy without saying what is happening.
While I couldn't fit everything into the section, I tried my best to craft an understanding for you all of what is happening in a condensed manner.
Who knows, maybe it sucks.
- Alex Blackwood
đą Labor market shows resilience - 228,000 jobs were added in the month of March, which was up from the 117,000 jobs added in February and nearly double the 130,000 economists were expecting from the March report. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2% in March.
đ” What are you gonna do with $5 [$40] bill? Put it on your pile with your other bill? - Sam Altman channeled his inner Logan Roy and closed out a $40 billion funding round for OpenAI. The round was the largest private deal in tech history and values the âstartupâ at $300 billion. The round was led by a $30 billion investment from Softbank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors. The valuation puts OpenAI $50 billion shy of the most valuable private company, SpaceX, and even with ByteDance.
đ„Ą My old roommate used to order Hooters delivery - To be honest, I couldnât think of a clever way to break this story, when I remembered this crazy fact that I think about often. Doesnât that line seem self-defeating? To quote the late great Ricky Bobby, âThat idea ain't worth a velvet painting of a whale and a dolphin getting it on.â Anyways, Hooters filed for bankruptcy, and the original owners are in charge. The original owners say they are âreturning it to its roots.â To be honest not sure fully what that means, given at one point, Hooters tried to start an airline that lost $40 million. Not even joking, look it up, Hooters Air.
On April 2nd, 1 day after April Fools Day, so it wouldnât be deemed a joke, President Trump stood in the Rose Garden and announced a 10% base tariff and reciprocal tariffs on specific trading partners. Trump called the day âLiberation Day.â
President Trump is using the tariffs as a negotiating tactic in a trade war. His stated intentions are to âput America first.â He has frequently said, âThey charge us, we charge them.â
To an extent, no, to an extent, yes.
No:
In 1990, the World Trade Organization (WTO) implemented something called a âMost-Favored Nation (MFN)â tariff for members of the WTO to prevent discrimination. The MFN is a tariff rate a country applies to imports from trading partners that are members of the World Trade. Meaning, if you import from another member, you can only charge the tariff rate you charge from any other member. An example, if the European Union imports from America or China, the import tariff is on average 5% (the MFN tariff). This means, the EU collects a 5% tariff on goods imported from America, China, or any other member of the WTO. The EU canât reduce the tariff for China to 2% and raise it to 10% for America. Again, the tariff is collected by the EU government in the scenario, so reducing tariff rates would make goods from China cheaper, which would incentivize EU businesses to import more from China. Conversely, raising the tariff to 10% would make it more expensive to import from America. As part of the WTO, if you extend one tariff rate to one member, you must extend it to all.
Yes:
The US has one of the lowest MFN rates at an average of 3.3%, which means imports are on average at 3.3%. The 3.3% is the average tariff, and the difference between goods and services varies drastically. China on the other hand has an average MFN tariff rate of 7.5%. This means US based companies are more incentivized to import than China based companies are because the US based companies have to pay less on average to the US government than China based companies have to pay to the Chinese government. Additionally, Trump argues that outside of the numbers, the US is subject to non-tariff barriers to trade that exist outside of typical tariffs. These non-tariff barriers could be technical barriers, licensing restrictions, and other âdiscriminatoryâ practices. Trump is arguing that by using the tariffs as a main negotiating tool, we can change both tariff and non-tariff barriers and reduce a trading deficit (importing more than you export).
Not great, Bob. The market erased $6.6 trillion in value over a two-day rout. This was the worst week since 2020 when the world shut down due to COVID. The Magnificent 7 lost roughly $1.6 billion in value over that period.
While the economy had been heading towards a soft-landing, the latest tariff shake up has left the economy in a precarious state. The market began pricing in a recession. By creating the tariffs, the end consumer would suffer, and as a result, businesses would suffer. Stagflation would rear its ugly head. Klarna, a company who was set to go public this spring, has suspended its path to IPO. Other companies are following suit.
While the jury is still out on the impact of the tariffs from a true economic sense, Trump has urged Americans to stay the course and promises, âit wonât be easy, but the end result will be historic.â
I am not arguing one way or another, and to be honest, I have no idea what he is thinking about, but one would hope there is a method to this. Geniuses are called idiots until a breakthrough, and some idiots are just idiots fooled with the grandeur of genius. Who knows how it will play out, but you should be prepared for either side of the equation; hence, why I presented you both sides of the argument here.
For us, we saw treasury yields dip, which means mortgage rates have come down, and housing prices are set to increase. If tariffs go into full effect, supply of new homes will be reduced, and real estate prices will rise. Real estate tends to outperform in periods of uncertainty, everyone needs a place to live, so we are all for the uncertainty. We mitigate risk as best we can, and we are prepared for all the turbulent times ahead. There is as good a case for parking cash in real estate as ever before.
Discover three exceptional opportunities in Texasâs dynamic real estate market, featuring immediate income and impressive growth potential. These properties combine proven performance, exceptional locations, and robust cash flow, representing smart alternatives amidst the global economic uncertainty.
The Johnson (Austin, TX): Our first-ever Austin property, The Johnson is approaching an imminent sellout, with less than 12% of its offering amount left. This stunning 4-bedroom home achieved T12 rents of $190K at ~80% occupancy, with a projected first-year yield of 9.0% and levered IRR of 16.2%. Secured $100k below listing price, The Johnson offers both security and significant upside potential.
The Celeste (Houston, TX): A proven Airbnb in our most popular market, The Celeste delivers immediate cash flow with an impressive 8.2% first-year yield and projected levered IRR of 15.1%. Ideally located near Houston's top attractions and fully furnished, this turnkey property offers consistent occupancy and robust growth in a booming real estate market.
The Johnson II (Austin, TX): Designed by world-renowned architect AD Stenger, The Johnson II blends mid-century charm with modern amenities, all in an unbeatable location. With over 50% of the year pre-booked, this flagship property promises immediate returns, boasting an average yield of 12.3% and projected levered profit of $1.52 million.
This one is incredibly controversial. While a lot of historians accuse Napoleon Hill of being a fraud, the book itself was a great read, even if the entire thing is fabricated. I am not saying one way or another, I am just saying you can derive a lot from this book.
While not explicitly said, the book is about unlocking the passive brain's ability to continue your path to a goal without even realizing. The book breaks down stories and anecdotes from business moguls like Carnegie to boil down how to "Think and Grow Rich."
â 4.61 / 5.0 in my book (no pun intended)
Chipotle estimates that it bought around 5% of all the avocados consumed in the U.S. last year.
Written by Alex Blackwood & Thomas Horcel
Receive this weekly recap when you sign up for our platform